Explainer 24 - Recidivism of the "foreign agents" draft law in Georgia
Georgians take to the streets to protest the government's decision to once again scrap approval of the foreign agents law.
There are three main scenarios for how events can develop in Georgia. Two factors can determine the course of events: the EU and civil society organisations in Georgia.
The EU is timid (or cautious) to signal that it may reverse Georgia's candidate status given the ongoing legal criminalisation of certain future activities of civil society organisations in this EaP candidate state.
In the current situation 3 scenarios can evolve:
Scenario 1: The EU finds the courage (assume a risk) to state that it will downgrade Georgia's status within the enlargement package, if the law is adopted. This may have ramifications such as: public protests/riots over “candidacy disqualification.” The Georgian govt will most likely accuse Brussels of provoking public unrest (the Russian and Chinese “color revolutions” narrative).
Scenario 2: Before the final vote on the law, protests by civil society organizations will change the minds of legislators and reverse the process. This does not rule out that the controversial law will not eventually return to the political agenda because the current Georgian govt/Georgian Dream perceives NGOs as risk agents for various reasons (political mobility, communication channels with Western institutions, etc.). This scenario depends on the (in)action of the EU and the US, which are now busy with an electoral agenda and other regional crises (Russian war in Ukraine, Israel's military intervention/war in Gaza, etc.).
Scenario 3: The law is adopted, but due to public & external pressure the implementation is delayed to a date after 2024. This helps the govt balance the pressure facing the risk of public mobilization around the goal of scrapping the law and prevent downgrading EU candidate status. If this scenario materializes, then the weight will shift from mobilizing protests to mobilizing the anti-Georgian Dream vote in the autumn general elections. All three scenarios carry tactical downsides and strategic costs for the govt and its opponents, who are coalescing around targeted Georgian NGOs.
helful to outline this -- my sense anyway was that implementation starts with the year 2025, but I would need to read the bill again.
By the way, in the given bill, all NGOs are subjected to this law. If you help children with disabilities, you will also have to jump through the hoops. So the entire sector is subject to intrusion and arbitrary interference.