Explainer-25: The deepening crisis in Georgia
Despite widespread protests and opposition, the ruling party remains committed to passing the controversial "foreign agents" law.
To garner public support, they are organizing pro-government demonstrations, aiming to portray the bill as legitimate and necessary.
After facing extensive backlash against the proposed law, dubbed the "Russian Law" by its critics, the government is under pressure to regain public confidence.
With competing narratives dominating public discourse, the government is leveraging its media channels to present a positive image of the bill, especially to those who may be less politically engaged or confused about its implications.
In response to anti-government protests, the Georgian Dream party is orchestrating counter-demonstrations and attempting to prevent dissent from spreading to other regions where opposition sentiment has surfaced, such as Kutaisi.
Notably, former Russian intelligence agents are hosting public events in Tbilisi, advocating for closer ties between Georgia and Russia based on "traditional values." That goes against liberal values that are part of European integration process. It also juxtaposes with ongoing civil society protests against the foreign agents law, creating further political tension.
The civil society is arguing its criticism with the growing perception that the Georgian government's actions lead to the restoration of Russian influence. Just as Russia uses "borderization" to expand the area of the occupied territories in favor of the separatist regions (South Ossetia), the self-isolation carried out by the Georgian government pushes it to normalize relations with Russia.
At the moment the scenarios (described here) are shifting towards deeper political crisis.
Firstly, against the backdrop of poor strategic communication concerning the controversial bill, the governmet has realized that it doesn’t control the public agenda on this issue, nor has a positive receipt of the pro-bill arguments abroad. On these two aspects the protesting civil society and its supporters outdid the government.
Secondly, the Georgian Dream seems to be unsure about how to handle the protesters. They are not violent and have a strong youth core. Using force against them will only increase the force of the protests with implications for the Georgian Dream in the elections, as well as the personal interests of Ivanishvili.
Thirdly and lastly, tt becomes evident that the government underestimated the mobilization capacity of the civil society and the opposition, as well as the trigger potential of the moderate approach towards Russia.
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