Explainer - 16: The aging Soviet military depot on the border between Moldova and Ukraine
The post is an exchange with a Spanish journalist about the potential for the insecurity of the military depot in the Transnistria region and the implications for the security of Moldova and Ukraine.
The military depot in the Transnistria region storing outdated and degrading Soviet ammunition is considered a huge risk (and deterrent) to any military action targeting the separatist region of Moldova.
The protection of the depot and more
We are talking about 1,500 Russian soldiers protecting the depot. It is the figure with which he has been operating for some time. But I think the actual number can vary between 500 and 1500. Transparency on this topic is very poor.
The most recent figure indicates the supposed total volume of 20,000 tons of ammunition. This does not include vehicles, but rather weapons with the potential to explode naturally (high aging), due to human error or sabotage.
Russian propaganda sources speak of the following types of weapons deposited in Transnistria: tons of 152-mm and 122-mm shells for howitzers, mines for 80-mm and 120-mm caliber mortars, as well as rockets for multiple rocket launchers, multi-million cartridges of calibers. 7.62x39mm, 5.45x39mm. This volume of ammunition is said to fit in 2,500 train cars (https://life.ru/p/1562198).
The destruction potential of the ammunition in the event of an explosion.
The estimates of the Moldovan experts who made the estimates in the 2005 report, which is not available for reasons that remain unclear, indicate that the explosion would be equivalent to the explosion of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. The depth of the hole created by the explosion would be 75-100 meters (a building of almost 30 floors). Also, the power of the explosion would be compared to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake, similar to what we have seen recently in Turkey and Syria. Buildings within 50 km of the source of the explosion would be completely destroyed. The northern part of Moldova would be totally or partially affected as also the nearby big cities of Ukraine like Podolsk (https://noi.md/md/in-lume/oamenii-de-stiinta-ai-asm-nu-putem-permite-in-niciun-caz-o-explozie-la-depozitul-cu-munitii-de- the-colbasna).
The warehouse is located 127 kilometers from the Moldovan capital, which hosts the second meeting of the European Political Community in June, with the participation of more than 50 European leaders. Therefore, Ukraine would not be at all interested in intervening militarily, if not in the case of defense. Russian provocations would be the only way the depot could have been detonated (https://fms.md/efectele-unei-eventuale-explozii-depozitului-de-armament-si-munitii-de-la-cobasna).
What is the role of the OSCE?
The OSCE expressed its readiness to inspect and provide technical capabilities for the controlled destruction of ammunition. But for this, I need the direct acceptance of Transnistria and the indirect one of Moscow.
The costs for Russia if it attacks involving the Transnistria region
Without a viable supply chain to sustain military efforts in Transnistria, Russia would lose out to Ukraine, which could easily seize control of the region. The only problem would be the military depot that can be sabotaged or exploited for other reasons. Russia would need a land corridor to connect Russian-controlled territories in Ukraine and Transnistria. This possibility has been more real in the first phase of the war, but now Ukraine effectively controls its territories in Odesa and other regions, making it impossible to reach Transnistria.
In the case of attacks by Russia using Transnistria, it is highly unlikely that munitions from the breakaway region could be used effectively. The weapons stored there are old and may explode before being used on the battlefield. The military depot at Cobasna is more of an ammunition graveyard than a potent source of weapons for both Russia and Ukraine.
Read more in the magnificent material prepared by Óscar Hernández Torres (El Confidencial) here.