Explainer-2: The EU's Global Gateway and the geopolitical competition with China and Russia

Here are some thoughts on the geopolitical implications of the EU Global Gateway. These ideas were expressed during a conversation with a researcher.

1) The EU’s Global Gateway, Central Asia, and Russia

There is no indication that the first Global Gateway was organized in connection to Central Asia due to Russian aggression against Ukraine. In their public communication, the EU institutions refer rather to China and to the security of the region undermined by the destabilization of Afghanistan. However, when it comes to separate topics like energy security, the EU acknowledges that Central Asia is under huge dependence on Russia.

The EU seeks its agenda of developing its strategic autonomy and access to critical mineral resources. In this sense, Central Asia plays a role in that along with Africa or Latin America. It is true that Russia will perceive the connectivity projects carried out by the EU within the Gateway as an attempt to separate the region from Russia by creating alternative routes for transport and logistics.

However, Central Asian countries could be tempted to use multi-vector foreign policy to extract benefits from the geopolitical powers present in the region. Global Gateway represents a future geopolitical interface and nexus between the EU and Central Asia, which will broaden the arena for geopolitical competition.

2) Is Global Gateway a "response to China's BRI"?

In fact, China is the main rival or competitor for influence in the region due to the size of the resources and the trade-based foreign policy style, incomparable with Russia, which prioritizes security and the exploitation of other dependencies (energy). The example of the forms of competition that we will be witnessing between the EU and China in Central Asia is summed up in the EU's decision to invest 15% of the €5 billion needed to complete the construction of Tadjic Rogun Hydropower.

The head of EU diplomacy commented that the Tadjic authorities have opted for the EU loan offer over a "low-cost Chinese one" (https://eeas.europa.eu/eeas/global-gateway… -brand-boost-european%C2%A0action-worldwide_en). It is worth mentioning that the EU will have to compete for relevance with both China and Russia at the same time in Central Asia, unlike other regions where the EU Global Gateway is being rolled out.

3) Does the Global Gateway involves the Eastern Partnership region?

The connectivity projects implemented by the EU in the EaP region are closer to the European borders, on the one hand, and are situated between the EU and Central Asia, on the other hand. This geographical position makes the infrastructure project in Armenia (and other countries from the South Caucasus) a potential element to be integrated into the gradually growing Central Asian component of the European Gateway.

4) EU Global Gateway in Central Asia

The EU Gateway will have strategic implications for Central Asia, giving countries in the regions more opportunities for a more balanced foreign policy, more geared towards national interests, than one stemming from attempts to appease regional powers to secure the energy supply or investments. The presence of the EU can contribute to the democratization of the region.