Explainer - 21: Ukraine and Georgia may compete for frontrunner position on the eastern flank of EU enlargement
The EU enlargement package reports, presented in November this year, give an insight into the situation of Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia compared to their peers in the Western Balkans.
Reports on EU enlargement for the 10 neighbours with a European perspective clearly indicate that Montenegro and Serbia are ahead of everyone. This happens because Turkiye remains the only country that has the highest rating of "well advanced" in the areas of "functioning of the market economy" or "corporate law."
The EU assessment illustrates that Ukraine and Georgia are more advanced than Moldova, although Georgia is not yet a full-fledged candidate state:
Ukraine is better prepared than Georgia in 7 areas, such as: “free movement of goods”, “digital transformation”, “customs union”, “energy”, “food security” and “external relations” and “security and defence”.
Georgia is ahead of Ukraine in 6 accession chapters, such as "public administration", "functional market economy", "right of establishment", "free movement of capital", "industrial policies" and "education and culture".
Moldova is behind Ukraine and Georgia in 13 chapters out of 33 and has a similar degree of preparation in the remaining chapters.
See the graph below:
Although Ukraine and Georgia are the two countries leading the way on the eastern flank of EU enlargement, they currently show a performance that in many areas is close to that of the dysfunctional state of Bosnia and Herzegovina and that of Kosovo, which not fully recognized internationally. However, both Ukraine and Georgia conform better to EU standards in certain policy areas:
Ukraine is more advanced than Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo in 7 areas, such as: “financial control”, “digital transformation”, “customs union”, “energy”, “food security” and “external relations” and “security and defence”.
Georgia is better prepared in 4 areas: “public administration”, “functioning of the market economy”, “external relations” and “security and defense”.
Ukraine vs. BiH and Kosovo
Georgia vs. BiH and Kosovo
It is important to note the starting point of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova compared to the Western Balkans and Turkiye. If the right reforms are implemented and sustained through proper implementation, then Ukraine and Georgia will have a better chance of moving closer to Montenegro and Serbia.
This will be a difficult task in terms of institutional and legal transformations and economic convergence with the EU stages over the next 6 years.
By 2030, it will be clear how close Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia can be to joining the EU, but it is quite unrealistic to expect these countries to join the EU.
More information about the current stage of the enlargement process and the lessons that can be learned from the Western Balkans and Turkiye can be found in my recent policy paper signed for the Eastern European Studies Centre in Vilnius:
Upgrading EU Enlargement Methodology: Enhancing Accession Prospects for the New Eastern Candidates, https://www.eesc.lt/en/publication/upgrading-eu-enlargement-methodology-enhancing-accession-prospects-for-the-new-eastern-candidates/