Explainer - 22: Decoding current events around the Transnistrian region
The dust is settling over speculations that the separatist regime in the Transnistrian region is trying to demand annexation by Russia. This post presents some underlying conclusions.
1) Even if this sort of “false flag” operation was authored by the Russian side, the separatist regime authorized and co-participated in it. No top official of the separatist region attempted to dismiss information about the annexation scenario.
2) The Moldovan authorities were unable to pre-bunk this information and had rather poor communication in the debunking process. This shows that the constitutional authorities in Moldova were rather unprepared and did not anticipate such an information operation by the Russian-Transnistria tandem;
3) Western actors were also caught by surprise, which raises the question of the level and depth of understanding of the processes taking place in Moldova. It may be the case that, instead of relying on information coming from the Moldovan authorities, the West needs alternative assessments of the situation in Moldova, including the region of Transnistria (where the composition of the elites is not homogenous and where Russian interests coexist with private oligarchic interests). In two days we will understand how the annexation scenario will end.
According to my assessment, the situation may move towards Scenario 1 (Transnistria is gradually ceding to Chisinau's new customs rules), given that some “carrots” are offered or maintained. However, at this moment, the separatist regime is trying its luck within Scenario 2: Transnistria does not give in & attempts to escalate, but only to a certain extent to engage the OSCE and others in talks with Chisinau to obtain concessions.
The above-mentioned points are confirmed by today's statements of different voices from the legislative body of the separatist regime, which outlined the following:
The Transnistria region wants to preserve peace in the context of the war in Ukraine and a scenario of annexation by Russia would be detrimental to this goal;
The gathering on Feb 28 aims to attract the attention of the OSCE and Russia, among others, to find solutions to relieve the pressure exerted by the constitutional authorities in Chisinau; and
Another intention is to reactivate the 5+2 negotiation format. In other words, the separatist regime seeks to improve the status quo, not its deterioration/dismantling.
In conclusion, the evidence and the explanatory part that I have provided illustrate that we are witnessing a clear balancing act performed by the regime of the Transnistria region trying to survive.
For more details contextualizing the current dynamics in the relationship of Moldova's constitutional authorities and the breakaway region's political-economic elites, see my latest publication for the Center for Eastern European Studies in Vilnius: