Explainer 8 - The political and geopolitical costs of Russia-inspired "foreign agents" law in Georgia
The controversial law has been adopted in the first reading with the deviations from the legislative procedures. There was not unanimity in the adoption of the law by the ruling party.
The current episode of political instability shows how local power dynamics and the spread of autocratic praxis can have dangerous geopolitical consequences. A brief cost-benefit analysis of the “foreign agents” law identifies more costs than benefits for the ruling party (Georgian Dream - GD) and Ivanishvili.
The costs for the regime are the following:
1) Propagation of political delegitimization (spillover effects on intellectuals, non-opposition, others);
2) Mobilization of the opposition and the blame vote (“against GD” rather than pure pro-opposition votes);
3) Deterioration of the dialogue with the EU (the EU candidacy is on ice for now);
4) Direct association with Russia and overlaps with Russian geopolitical interests.
The benefits are very few:
a) Temporary strengthening of political power; b) Restrict the open spaces for civil society and the media;
c) Exploit the radicalization of the political environment (caused by themselves) to justify more limitations at the expense of freedoms.
As can be seen, the costs of adopting the law outweigh any temporary power-related benefits.
If GD is an ultimate risk taker, he will go ahead with the law, but that will only mean that he is ready to de-Europeanize his geopolitical agenda.
It is not ruled out that the GD understands that the EU and NATO need Georgia because of its geostrategic position (guardian of the gateway to the South Caucasus and the Caspian basin).
So if it survives the political turmoil it created, the GD (ruling party) will exploit the country's geostrategic role to make the EU and NATO swallow the autocratic gyrations in Georgia.